Four reasons the market will rally for the rest of 2014

From MarketWatch

Four reasons the market will rally for the rest of 2014

By Nicholas A. Vardy, CFA
Published: Oct 29, 2014


For all of the stomach-churning gyrations of the stock market in recent months, the U.S. market hasn't done all that much since we rang in 2014.

As of this writing, the S&P 500 is up 6.63% and the Dow Jones is up 1.72%.

This is hardly shaping up to one for the history books.That said, here are four reasons why I expect the market to end 2014 on strong note.

The market's manic mood

Unlike wide lapels or Farrah Fawcett hairdos, pessimism about the U.S. market never goes out of style. Measures of market sentiment, such as the CNN Money Fear & Greed Index, actually hit zero briefly last week. That Index is now up to 13, still indicating "extreme fear."

Americans haven't felt this bad about their country since Jimmy Carter's malaise years. According to a recent POLITICO poll, 64% of respondents believe things in the United States feel "out of control" right now. Exactly half said the country was “on the wrong track."

Five years ago, China was going to take over the world and gold bugs were partying like it was 1999. Today, even these pillars of investment stability are gone.

It's a sign of the times that the best way to attract the derision of the masses is to say something positive about the U.S. economy. Take the case of Goldman Sachs, which came out recently with a bullish piece on the United States. Citing "American exceptionalism," Goldman recommended that investors own stocks with high domestic sales. Yet, Goldman was mocked mercilessly for its bullishness on the U.S. economy.

One popular blog urged its fans to re-read the Goldman report "as many times as necessary until you pass out from laughter..."

A contrarian could not ask for more.

The U.S. economy is back on track

Looking beyond the dismissive commentary for a moment, realize that the headline numbers from the U.S. economy hardly portend a coming apocalypse.

Read more from MarketWatch >>

40% of consumers’ holiday dollars will be spent online

From InternetRetailer


40% of consumers’ holiday dollars will be spent online
BY ALLISON ENRIGHT Editor | October 29, 2014

Consumers will spend nearly 13% more this holiday season, a new report says.

For the second year in a row, the Internet is U.S. consumers’ top holiday gift shopping venue. According to the findings of Deloitte LLC’s annual holiday survey, 45% of the more than 5,000 consumers surveyed say they are likely to shop online for holiday gifts.

And there will be more dollars to spend. Consumers will spend an average of $458 on gifts for others, up 9% from $421 last holiday. Meanwhile, spending across all holiday-related categories, such as for holiday decorations and socializing away from home, will rise 12.5%, from $1154 a year ago to $1299 this year.

Consumers’ slightly less gloomy outlook on the state of the U.S. economy appears to be contributing to them planning to spend more: 8% of respondents to this year’s survey characterize the economy as “healthy,” up from 4% in last year’s survey. The percentage saying the economy was “slowly recovering from recession” remained consistent, 53% this year versus 54% last year. 29% this year say the economy is still in recession versus 32% a year ago, and 11% this year say the economy is heading back into recession versus 10% who said the same last year. 15% of consumers say they intend to spend more this holiday season versus 13% who said they intended to spend more last holiday.

Online holiday retail sales and mail order purchases in the United States will increase between 13.5% and 14.0% this year compared with 2013, according to a projection Deloitte released last month. Deloitte says 40% of holiday dollars will be spent online, which is in line with analysis released earlier this month by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. PwC estimates 43% of holiday gift spending will happen online.

Respondents to the Deloitte survey cite long lines (40%), too much traffic (26%) and not having the merchandise they want (25%) as the biggest inhibitors to shopping in stores. More than half of consumers, 58%, say they know more about the products they intend to buy than the store staff they encounter. That’s because consumers are researching on the web before they go to stores: The web will influence 50% of in-store retail sales this season, Deloitte says. For example, 28% of consumers say they rely on online reviews prior to making a purchase, and 23% say they will use their smartphones to compare prices while in a store. 

Market Smashes Through Major Technical Barriers

From DailyMarketOutlook

Market Smashes Through Major Technical Barriers
The indices have drastically increased their odds of breaking to new highs

By Sam Collins, InvestorPlace Chief Technical Analyst  |  Oct 29, 2014

Small-cap stocks led the market higher Tuesday with the Russell 2000 climbing 2.9%. The Nasdaq’s 1.8% gain and S&P 500′s 1.2% advance put the indices in positive territory for October after being in the red mid-month.

The big rally appeared to be the result of the Federal Reserve’s willingness to continue an easy-money policy after its bond-buying program ends this month. The FOMC will issue a statement today, which is expected to indicate that a hike in interest rates is not currently on the near-term agenda.

Higher-than-expected earnings have also boosted stock prices. Pfizer Inc. (PFE) rose 0.2% after beating analysts’ Q3 estimates. E I Du Pont De Nemours And Co (DD) gained 0.1% after it said earnings jumped 52% as a result of lower expenses. However, Twitter Inc. (TWTR) fell 9.8% on a drop in active users even though revenue more than doubled.

Lower energy prices contributed to gains in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which hit a new high on Tuesday.

Consumer confidence rose to its highest level since 2007. Durable goods orders fell 1.3% in September versus an expected increase of 0.7%. Case-Shiller reported a 5.6% rise in home prices in August, less than the 5.7% expected. And the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index rose to 20 in October versus an expected decline to 10.

With stocks back in demand, bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.28% from 2.26% on Monday.

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 188 points to 17,006, the S&P 500 gained 23 points at 1,985, the Nasdaq was up 78 points to 4,564, and the Russell 2000 gained 32 points at 1,149.

The NYSE’s primary market traded 797 million shares with total volume of 3.6 billion. The Nasdaq crossed 1.9 billion shares. Block trades were slightly higher than on Monday on both exchanges. On the Big Board, gainers outpaced decliners by over 5-to-1, and on the Nasdaq, advancers were ahead by 4-to-1.



Read more from DailyMarketOutlook >>

The Dangers of Eating Late at Night

From The NYTimes


The Dangers of Eating Late at Night
By JAMIE A. KOUFMANOCT. 25, 2014

Some of my patients who arrive complaining of reflux already eat healthfully. For them, dining too late is often the sole cause of their problem.

ACID REFLUX is an epidemic affecting as many as 40 percent of Americans. In addition to heartburn and indigestion, reflux symptoms may include postnasal drip, hoarseness, difficulty swallowing, chronic throat clearing, coughing and asthma. Taken together, sales of prescribed and over-the-counter anti-reflux medications exceed $13 billion per year.

The number of people with acid reflux has grown significantly in recent decades. Reflux can lead to esophageal cancer, which has increased by about 500 percent since the 1970s. And anti-reflux medication alone does not appear to control reflux disease. A Danish study published this year concluded that there were no cancer-protective effects from using the common anti-reflux medications, called proton pump inhibitors, and that regular long-term use was actually associated with an increased risk of developing esophageal cancer.

What is responsible for these disturbing developments? The answer is our poor diet, with its huge increases in the consumption of sugar, soft drinks, fat and processed foods. But there is another important variable that has been underappreciated and overlooked: our dinnertime.

I specialize in the diagnosis and management of acid reflux, especially airway reflux, which affects the throat, sinuses and lungs. Airway reflux is often “silent,” occurring without telltale digestive symptoms, like heartburn and indigestion. Most of the tens of thousands of reflux patients that I have seen over the last 35 years are well today because I treat reflux by modifying my patients’ diets and lifestyles.

Over the past two decades, I’ve noticed that the time of the evening meal has been trending later and later among my patients. The after-work meal — already later because of longer work hours — is often further delayed by activities such as shopping and exercise.

Read more from The NYTimes >>

The American Dream Is Leaving America

From TheNYTimes


The American Dream Is Leaving America
OCT. 25, 2014

THE best escalator to opportunity in America is education. But a new study underscores that the escalator is broken.

We expect each generation to do better, but, currently, more young American men have less education (29 percent) than their parents than have more education (20 percent).

Among young Americans whose parents didn’t graduate from high school, only 5 percent make it through college themselves. In other rich countries, the figure is 23 percent.

The United States is devoting billions of dollars to compete with Russia militarily, but maybe we should try to compete educationally. Russia now has the largest percentage of adults with a university education of any industrialized country — a position once held by the United States, although we’re plunging in that roster.

These figures come from the annual survey of education from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or O.E.C.D., and it should be a shock to Americans.

A basic element of the American dream is equal access to education as the lubricant of social and economic mobility. But the American dream seems to have emigrated because many countries do better than the United States in educational mobility, according to the O.E.C.D. study.

As recently as 2000, the United States still ranked second in the share of the population with a college degree. Now we have dropped to fifth. Among 25-to-34-year-olds — a glimpse of how we will rank in the future — we rank 12th, while once-impoverished South Korea tops the list.

Read more from TheNYTimes >>

Amazon Q3 revenue increases 20%

From InternetRetailer


Amazon Q3 revenue increases 20%

 BY THAD RUETER Senior Editor | October 23, 2014

The e-retailer heads into the holiday shopping season behind a 30% increase in fulfillment spending and a widening net loss. North American sales increased 25% in the third quarter.

Amazon.com Inc., No. 1 in the Internet Retailer Top 500 Guide, today posted a third quarter revenue gain of 20.4%. The e-retailer’s net loss widened due to increased spending on fulfillment, marketing and other areas.

The big news for North American retailers that compete with Amazon is that the leading web retailer continues to take market share. And that’s particularly true in general merchandise and consumer electronics, as North American sales in that category increased 30.6% in the third quarter, following 29.1% growth in the second quarter. Wells Fargo analyst Matt Nemer says the Q3 growth in this category marked the fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration, and "shows massive market share gains continue in U.S. retail.” Online retail sales in the United States increased 15.7% in the second quarter compared with the prior-year quarter, far slower than Amazon’s growth.

Sales of media products—books, videos and music—increased only 4.8% in North America in the third quarter, which Amazon attributed to more college students renting instead of buying textbooks, and heavy discounting of other books.

International sales were much weaker, growing only 13.6%. Analysts say that reflects weak economic growth in Europe and Japan.

The Q3 report highlighted Amazon’s big stumble on its Fire smartphone, which has failed to catch on since its introduction in June. Amazon wrote off $170 million worth of Fire phone inventory in the third quarter, contributing to its net loss of $437 million in the quarter. Heavy investments in new fulfillment centers and to license TV shows and movies for its streaming video service also factored into the loss.

As it normally does, Amazon’s press release announcing its Q3 results included an upbeat comment from the company’s founder.

"As we get ready for this upcoming holiday season, we are focused on making the customer experience easier and more stress-free than ever," said Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon.com. "In addition to our already low prices, we will offer more than 15,000 lightning deals with early access to select deals for Prime members, hundreds of millions of products across dozens of categories, curated gift lists like Holiday Toy List and Electronics Holiday Gift Guide, new features like #AmazonWishList, and a great new lineup of products like Kindle Voyage and Fire HD Kids Edition.”

Read more from InternetRetailer >>

Ben Ginder in Flushing, NY - October 28, 2014

Ben Ginder in Flushing, NY - October 28, 2014

Imagine a life style you can take time off to spoil all 17 of your nephews and nieces with a trip to Disney World, Orlando, Florida! How cool is it? Or, take 100 of your team leaders on a seven-day cruise, all expenses paid? "It is very rewarding to be able to give others a taste of the lifestyle I've been enjoying for the last eight years," says Ben, who honestly feels his business is like "being on a six month vacation, twice a year."

Ben Ginder will be at the Sheraton Hotel, Flushing, Queens at 7:00 PM to give a presentation on Market America and what this company had offered him and potentially anyone who chooses, in his words, "Take charge and have the discipline to do whatever it takes to get the job done, The key to success in this business is self-discipline and the determination to make it work. Communicate with your conviction to get the results you want."

"Before Market America, I was struggling to pay bills and in debt over my head. Now, I am out of debt and financially free. It's as if I'm on a permanent vacation, living each new day with a phenomenal lifestyle of which few could dream."

If you are in the Flushing, Queens area, come and find out for yourself, how Ben amass -

"a sprawling estate overlooking the Susquehanna River in Wrightsville, Pennsylvania and his enviable fleet of Lamborghini, Ferrari, Bentley, Rolls Royce, Aston Martin, and Mercedes automobiles convinces you of the wisdom of his choice. When he drives up to a major company event in his latest exotic car, he not only wants to elicit wonder, but also curiosity and a little motivation--"How can I get a set of wheels like that?"" - quote from his Market America Profile.

"If you're serious about the business, the company's new Field President will tell you." - from his profile in Market America.

S&P 500 has best week since 2013

From Fortune

S&P 500 has best week since 2013

by  Tom Huddleston, Jr.  @tjhuddle
OCTOBER 24, 2014

Big gains by the stock market on Friday sent the index up 4.1% for the week snapping a four-week losing streak.

The stock market proved more or less immune to Ebola on Friday, as the three major U.S. indices rose sharply in what was one of the market’s strongest weeks this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained almost 128 points, or 0.8%, on Friday to close at 16,805, finishing the week up by 2.6%. The S&P 500 improved by 0.7%, to 1,965, and was up by 4.1% for the week in what was the index’s best weekly showings since last year.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite also gained 0.7% Friday, or 5.3% for the week, closing at 4,484. The big gains came despite the tech-heavy index suffering from an 8% drop by Amazon ( AMZN -8.34% ) after the online retail giant reported disappointing third-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon.

The strong week follows on the heels of more than a month of volatility during which the markets dropped sharply. Earlier this month, a massive market-wide sell-off briefly turned the Dow Jones negative for the year as investors grew concerned about global economic growth and potential interest rate hikes by U.S. Federal Reserve.

Friday’s gains come one day after the market opened higher thanks to a handful of strong earnings reports from 3M ( MMM 2.44% ), Caterpillar ( CAT 0.17% ), General Motors ( GM -2.88% ), and Under Armour ( UA -0.14% ). Investors were also encouraged by a dip in jobless claims and news from Europe about a spike in German manufacturing and a drop in Spain’s unemployment.

Read more from Fortune >>

Combating a Flood of Early 401(k) Withdrawals

From The NYTimes

Combating a Flood of Early 401(k) Withdrawals
OCT. 24, 2014

This week, the Internal Revenue Service announced that people under age 50 in 401(k) and similar workplace retirement plans will be able to deposit up to $18,000 in 2015, an increase of $500 from this year. Those 50 and over can toss in as much as $24,000, a $1,000 increase.

Which is all fine and dandy for the well-heeled and the frugal. But one of the biggest problems with these accounts has nothing to do with how much we can put in. Instead, it’s the amount that so many people take out long before they retire.

Over a quarter of households that use one of these plans take out money for purposes other than retirement expenses at some point. In 2010, 9.3 percent of households who save in this way paid a penalty to take money out. They pulled out $60 billion in the process; a significant chunk of the $294 billion in employee contributions and employer matches that went into the accounts.

These staggering numbers come from an examination of federal and other data by Matt Fellowes, a former Georgetown public policy professor who now runs a software company called HelloWallet, which aims to help employers help their workers manage their money better.

In a paper he wrote with a colleague, he noted that industry veterans tend to refer to these retirement withdrawals as “leakage.” But as the two of them wrote, it’s really more like a breach. And while that term has grown more loaded since their treatise appeared last year and people’s debit card information started showing up on hacker websites, it’s still appropriate. Millions of people are clearly not using 401(k) plans as retirement accounts at all, and it’s a threat to their financial health.

“It’s not a system of retirement accounts,” said Stephen P. Utkus, the director of retirement research at Vanguard. “In effect, they have become dual-purpose systems for retirement and short-term consumption needs.”

How did this happen? Early on in the history of these accounts, there was concern that if there wasn’t some way for people to get the money out, they wouldn’t deposit any in the first place. Now, account holders may be able to take what are known as hardship withdrawals if they’re in financial trouble. Moreover, job changers often choose to pull out some or all of the money and pay income tax on it plus a 10 percent penalty.

Read more from The NYTimes >>

Exercise, Diet and Sleep Can Improve MS Symptoms

From WSJ


Exercise, Diet and Sleep Can Improve MS Symptoms

Researchers Find Lifestyle Changes Can Help People With Multiple Sclerosis

By LAURA LANDRO
Updated Oct. 13, 2014

Exercise, sleep and a low-salt diet may be part of the solution for multiple sclerosis patients.

Researchers are increasingly looking to lifestyle, diet and exercise, including salsa dancing, to help mitigate the often-debilitating effects of MS, which include problems with muscle control, balance, vision and thinking.

A diagnosis of MS can lead to depression and fear of stigma because the disease has the potential to progress to permanent disability. As many as 500,000 people in the U.S. and a total of more than 2.3 million world-wide are affected by the disease, according to the nonprofit National Multiple Sclerosis Society. It usually strikes in people’s prime, between the age of 20 and 50, and more than two times as many women develop MS, a gender difference that has been increasing over the past 50 years.

In the past people with MS were advised against exercise because it appeared to worsen their fatigue and other symptoms, but new studies have shown the negative effects are temporary and outweighed by benefits such as counteracting depression and improving cognition.

And contrary to perception, MS isn’t always a steady degenerative downward spiral. Though there is no cure, about 85% of cases are known as “relapsing-remitting,” which means attacks with acute symptoms are followed by recoveries that can last for long periods of time.

According to the Multiple Sclerosis International Federation, the prevalence of MS globally increased from 2.1 million to 2.3 million between 2008 and 2013. There is no evidence that incidence is rising, but because of better diagnosis capabilities people are being recognized as having MS earlier.

Read more from WSJ >>

From CharlesBiderman

The Heart of the Ponzi?!?

Oct  07
By Chris Hamilton

Given the Fed will complete it’s “taper” shortly…the topic of who has bought, who owns, and who will buy US Treasury debt seems important.



The 1st slide shows the four classes of US Treasury buyers.  It shows who purchased what since ’00 cross referencing the blended interest rates on the Treasury curve.  As yields have collapsed and the alternative markets (stocks, RE, corporate or junk bonds) have improved or offered more attractive returns…only the Fed and Foreigners have continued to accumulate Treasury’s.  I included the Fed’s $667 Billion in Operation Twist long bond purchases (paid for from selling all their short paper) to show the power and magnitude of the Fed’s purchases since 2011…



OK, let’s follow CBO assumptions that debt creation will continue at present levels or slightly higher til say, infinity.  Who will buy the new and rollover debt?  Since the yields are too low for most Public pensions or insurers or institutional buyers and without a major market downturn; they are not likely to step forward.  The Intra-Gov purchases will be limited by slowing or negative Social Security surplus’ so no buyer there.  And the Fed’s taper is nearly complete and the Fed will be looking to “normalize” their balance sheet by directly selling or slowing rolling off their holdings.  This leaves only ”Foreigners” to maintain the Treasury bid for the vast majority of new issuance plus Fed’s “normalization”.  But which “Foreigners” have been buying since ’11?

Read more from CharlesBiderman >>

Happy 27th Anniversary Black Monday

From ZeroHedge

Happy 27th Anniversary Black Monday

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/17/2014

"It could never happen again... right?"






And if you think this time is different - just take a look at the 'tricks' they used 27 years ago to stop the fall - A Fed statement and borken/halted exchanges...



Charts: Bloomberg and Yahoo

Don’t Just Sit There!

From UCBerkeleyWellness


Don’t Just Sit There!
by BERKELEY WELLNESS  |  AUGUST 18, 2014

Everyone knows that being a couch potato is unhealthy, but being a chair tomato (okay, we made that up) can be just as bad, according to a veritable avalanche of studies in the past three years. Sitting too much increases the risk of heart disease, stroke, diabetes, obesity, and other chronic diseases and—here’s the real news—this is true even in people who exercise regularly. Here are just three recent studies.

Women who are sedentary (sitting or resting) for more than 11 hours a day have a 12 percent higher risk of premature death than those who are sedentary for four hours or less, according to a study of 93,000 postmenopausal women from the Women’s Health Initiative, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine. The researchers controlled for physical function, fitness level, and overall health, suggesting that even those who exercise regularly are at increased risk if they sit a lot.

In people over 60, each additional daily hour spent in sedentary behavior is associated with an increased risk of not being able to carry out daily activities, regardless of the amount of moderate or vigorous exercise they reported or their overall health, according to a nationwide study of 2,286 people, in the Journal of Physical Activity & Health.

People who reported that they sit more than eight hours a day are less likely to report excellent overall health and quality of life than those who said they sit less than four hours a day, according to a study of 195,000 Australians (ages 45 to 106), in the International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. It found that physical activity level was most strongly linked to good health, but that longer sedentary time modestly reduced the benefit at all levels of activity.

Read more about the perils of sitting here.

The Depressing Signals the Markets Are Sending About the Global Economy

From the NYTimes


The Depressing Signals the Markets Are Sending About the Global Economy
By NEIL IRWIN
OCTOBER 15, 2014

It wasn’t very long ago that the dread hovering over global financial markets was that things were getting too calm. Just this summer, Federal Reserve officials were fretting over markets being so stable that it might create complacency, and we were writing about a global boom in asset prices.

Even if many Americans don’t fully realize it yet—though an unnerving drop in a wide range of global markets Wednesday may have gotten our collective attention—the autumn has brought a rather darker set of worries with a series of dives in financial markets across the globe.

On Wednesday alone, the Standard & Poor's 500 briefly fell into negative territory for the year and the interest rate investors were willing to accept on 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds edged below 2 percent for the first time since June 2013. (As of late morning, the S&P was down 1.4 percent for the day and narrowly up for the year, and the 10 year Treasury bond was back up to 2.05 percent).

But those moves underlie a bigger story: Many crucial indicators in markets for international bonds, currency and commodities are pointing toward a heightened risk of a worldwide economic slowdown that may be beyond the ability of policy makers to halt. It would inevitably have ripple effects even on the relatively strong American economy.

People who monitor the diverse global markets to understand what the future may hold are closely following these indicators.

Bond yields. When the economic outlook becomes more gloomy, investors tend to pile money into government bonds of nations viewed as secure, creditworthy places to park money. Also, when the economic outlook appears worse, investors assume central banks will keep low interest rates in place for longer, so they must accept lower interest rates on even long-term bonds.

Read more from NYTimes >>

Jeff Iliff: One more reason to get a good night’s sleep

Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer"

From DailyWealth


Second-Richest Man Says Mortgages Now a "No Brainer"
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Thursday, October 9, 2014

Warren Buffett is the second-richest man in America today, behind Bill Gates. (He was the richest man in the world in 2008.)

He made his fortune through the financial markets. Buffett, to me, is the greatest financial mind of our time – if not ever.

Right now, Mr. Buffett says to get a fixed mortgage... Specifically, he calls it a "no brainer" today...

Mortgage rates have been falling again lately, and they're not far from all-time record lows:



"You would think that people would be lining up now to get mortgages to buy a home," he said at a Fortune magazine conference this week.

Buffett has been surprised about the speed of housing's recovery. He said it "has been slower than I anticipated." But he is not worried.

Buffett expects housing will recover, as it always does after recessions. He joked that inevitably "Hormones kick in, and in-laws get tiresome."

Read more from DailyWealth >>

Keep your immune system fighting strong this season

From ClevelandClinicWellness

Keep your immune system fighting strong this season
Make time for the most important meal of the day to help keep colds and flu at bay.

When the alarm goes off on a weekday morning you may feel like it’s the start of a morning race. But if you dash out the door without eating breakfast, you could be missing a chance to keep your immune system in tip-top shape. Research suggests that people who skip breakfast come down with colds and flu more often than those who enjoy the most important meal of the day. Another immune-system sapper is stress. While you won’t be able to rid yourself of stress completely, you can manage it better by maintaining healthy habits. Get your zzz’s (seven to nine hours, depending on what makes your body function best), stay active and eat nutritious, balanced meals. A few ideas for a smart start in the morning: Try peanut butter on 100 percent whole-grain toast, a couple of hard-boiled or poached eggs without the yokes, Greek yogurt (nonfat and no sugar added) with frozen berries, or a bowl of oatmeal with nuts and berries.

What's making the stock market act so crazy?

From YahooFinance


What's making the stock market act so crazy?

By Jeff Macke  |  Yahoo Finance

It’s not your imagination: the stock market has gone a little bonkers lately. This week alone the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) plummeted 272 points on Tuesday, rocketed back 274 points Wednesday and sank more than 330 points today. October has already recorded five days where stocks moved more than 1%. That’s as many 1% moves as we saw in the prior five months combined.

So why are stocks so crazy? There’s no set answer but here are three of the most obvious explanations making the rounds on Wall Street.

It’s October

I know it sounds crazy but October is almost by tradition the most volatile month of the year. Whether it’s because of the upcoming holidays, the end of the fiscal year for mutual funds or because we hold elections every other November, October sees far and away the most 1% moves of any month. Remarkably since 1970 nearly one third of every trading day in October has seen the price of stocks change by 1% or more. It's also worth noting that historically bad days like the 1929 crash and 1987's Black Monday crash both took place in October.

Global concerns

The world is always crazy but right now things seem to be rockier than normal. Government officials in Europe are arguing over the best way to ward off an impending recession, growth is slowing to a relative crawl in China and Japan is tipping into a recession. That’s never good for companies driven by exports like General Motors (GM) or McDonalds (MCD).

For their part the Federal Reserve acknowledged these global concerns yesterday and suggested they would be very cautious about raising interest rates because of such worries. That sentiment sent stocks surging, just the latest bit of evidence that investors pay very close attention to every word uttered by the Federal Reserve.

Read more from YahooFinance >>

The Surprising Threat to Your Financial Security in Retirement

From Money

The Surprising Threat to Your Financial Security in Retirement

Jason Hall / The Motley Fool

More Americans could face a housing-related financial hardship in retirement, according to a new Harvard study.

America’s population is going to experience a dramatic shift during the next 15 years. More than 130 million Americans will be aged 50 or over, and the entire baby boomer generation will be in retirement age — making 20% of the country’s population older than 65. If recent trends continue, there will be a larger number of retirees renting and paying mortgages than ever before.

A recent study published by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies describes how this could lead an unprecedented number of America’s aging population to face a lower quality of life or even financial hardship. However, the same study also points out that there is time for many of those who could be affected to do something about it.

Housing debt and rent costs pose a big threat

According to the data Harvard researchers put together, homeowners tend to be in a much better financial position than renters. The majority of homeowners over 50 have retirement savings with a median value of $93,000, plus $10,000 in savings. More than three-quarters of renters, on the other hand, have no retirement and only $1,000 in savings on average.

While renters — who don’t have the benefit of home equity wealth — face the biggest challenges, a growing percentage of those 50 and older are carrying mortgage debt. Income levels tend to peak for most in their late 40s before declining in the 50s, and then comes retirement. The result? Housing costs consume a growing percentage of income as those over 50 get older and enter retirement.

How bad is it? Check out this table from the Harvard study:

Read more from Money >>

E-commerce is on track for a record year in the United Kingdom

From InternetRetailer

October 6, 2014, 11:45 AM
E-commerce is on track for a record year in the United Kingdom

 BY ABBY CALLARD Associate Editor

At current rates, e-retailers will ship 930 million parcels in 2014—120 million in December alone, estimates IMRG.

Retailers in the United Kingdom are on track to ship a record 930 million parcels, representing 900 million orders, in 2014, the IMRG MetaPack U.K. Delivery Index says. 120 million of those orders will be in December alone.

The index tracks package volume and delivery success metrics for more than 220 e-retailers and more than 4.5 million orders a month. It says delivery volume was up 20% year over year in August. Based on e-retail delivery patterns in past years, order volumes are expected to increase by 10% during the holiday shopping season.

“With three years of data in the Index we can now predict the annual pattern of when and where these deliveries will be made,” Andrew Starkey, head of e-logistics for IMRG says. “This means we can confidently anticipate that a record 120 million orders will be dispatched by U.K. retailers in December alone.”

The index also found that delivery service performance improved during August. 94% of deliveries were made on time during the month, an improvement in delivery performance compared to the same period for the past two years. IMRG did not include the on-time delivery rate for past years. In August, 10.72% of orders were either delivered late or not delivered on the first attempt, compared to the monthly average of 11.6% over the last 12 months.

“Quality of service is higher this August than in the previous two years, which bodes well for the peak period,” Starkey says. “Some delivery problems relating to address queries seem to be on the rise so retailers need to keep an eye on this.”

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Bernanke Can't Get a Mortgage – Big Upside in Housing

From DailyWealth

Bernanke Can't Get a Mortgage – Big Upside in Housing
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
Monday, October 6, 2014

"I recently tried to refinance my mortgage," former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week, "and I was unsuccessful in doing so."

The audience laughed – but then he said "I'm not making that up."

What does it mean when Bernanke – the king of printing money – can't get his hands on any of the money that he printed?

When the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve can't get a mortgage, you know something is not quite right yet in the housing market...

The pipes are clogged... there's sand in the gears.

Bernanke stated the obvious: "I think it's entirely possible" that lenders "may have gone a little bit too far on mortgage-credit conditions."

At the height of the housing boom, lenders went a "bit too far" in the other direction... In short, if you could fog a mirror, you could get a mortgage.

Now that lenders have been burned, and regulators have made things more difficult, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction.

The right spot is somewhere in between...

We don't need 2006's "liar" loans... And we don't need 2014's standard either, where even the king of money printing can't get his hands on any money.

Lending standards will undoubtedly loosen up from here...

Regulators don't want to prevent capable people from buying a house (which is happening today). And bankers want to make more loans (to earn more profits).

In my opinion, we still have plenty of upside in the housing market...

We just need a little WD-40 to loosen up the gears of the housing market. We need the bankers to loosen up a bit, and the regulators to do the same.

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The US Dollar Is About To Inflict Carnage All Around The Planet

From ZeroHedge


The US Dollar Is About To Inflict Carnage All Around The Planet

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/05/2014

As I watch the euro losing another 1.3% against the dollar today, it’s now at $1.25, and down from close to $1.40 recently, it’s getting clearer all the time: the greenback is busy eating currencies and economies alive.

There is of course the fact that Abenomics in Japan is living up to its longstanding promise of utter failure. And there is Mario Draghi torn between two lovers, one the one hand the Germany/Austria camp – with France as a surprise third – who don’t want the ECB to buy up junk paper, and on the other hand those EU members whose sole road to survival inside the EU is for Draghi to buy up anything that even looks like it was once toilet paper.

But Japan and Europe have been in the economic doghouse for a long time. It wasn’t until the Fed pulled the trigger on the dollar steamroller that they started paying the real price for it.

Japan, at least as long as it chooses to cling to the growth fairy, has nowhere to turn but to something in the vein of Abenomics, i.e. huge money and credit expansion. But it’s not the money supply, no matter how it’s defined, that is the problem, it’s that people refuse to spend. And if people don’t spend, no government or central banks has a way to boost inflation. Why they should want to in the first place is another question.

Europe has the added problem of disagreement on how to escape the walls that are closing in. And the more they close in, the less comfortable the shared living space on the old continent becomes. With a bit of imagination, you can see different people, different cultures, different languages, and different economies, all forced to live in the same ever shrinking – economic -space.

There’s less of everything to go around, and no-one wants to give up what’s theirs. Still, at the same time we already saw that two-thirds of Greeks live at or below the poverty line, and that Naples is even worse than Greece. Where do you personally think that will go? With a dollar that is set to make lots of things, not the least of which is oil and gas, more expensive?

It’s not just that for Europe, the growth fairy is evasive, their economies are bound to shrink a lot more still. And then what is Draghi, or his successor, supposed to do? The eurozone, and the EU itself, has already become a straightjacket with a noose attached to it, and that noose will start to tighten as we go forward. Brussels and Frankfurt can spin all they want – and do they ever -, but they can’t squeeze milk out of a deceased goat.

No matter what side of which fence you’re sitting on here, you have to give it to the Fed and Wall Street, though: their timing is impeccable. Victim no. 1 of the "Dollar is King"-move are the
emerging markets:

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What's Trending? Global Obesity

From Berkeley Wellness

What's Trending? Global Obesity
by DAVID TULLER, DRPH

It’s no secret that the United States has been suffering from a major epidemic of overweight and obesity in recent decades, and that similar trends have occurred all around the world, in developed and developing countries alike. In 2010, it was estimated that the phenomenon caused 3.4 million deaths, not to mention an extensive wave of chronic disability. Now a new analysis in The Lancet has tracked the worldwide increase from 1980 to 2013, and the results are not pretty.

For adults, the study relied on standard definitions: a body mass index (BMI) of 25 to 30 for overweight, and 30 or more for obesity. Boasting more than 100 authors from every region of the planet, the study reviewed enormous amounts of data and found that the proportion of overweight and obese men rose from 28.8 to 36.9 percent during the 33-year period. Among women, the rate increased from 29.8 to 38 percent.

The U.S. figures were bad enough—just under one-third of men and just over one-third of women were obese in 2013. But some countries had even higher obesity rates. In Kuwait, Kiribati, the Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Samoa and Tonga, more than half of women were obese. Men fared slightly better—only in Tonga did their obesity rate top 50 percent.

Overall, the report is sobering. Unless we get this situation under control, the costs of addressing weight-related disorders like diabetes and cardiovascular disease—already enormous—will continue to skyrocket. The effects are likely to swamp any efforts in the U.S. and around the globe to keep health care expenses under control.

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The UnFranchise: Where Bishops and Rappers Unite for Residual Income

From BeingJRRidinger

The UnFranchise: Where Bishops and Rappers Unite for Residual Income 

October 2nd, 2014

Last night’s meeting wasn’t your typical event with Fat Joe in the house – then again the UnFranchise isn’t your typical business! As you can see Bishop Jordan’s team has built some tremendous momentum with Team Fat Joe. Only in a game-changing business like the UnFranchise will you find Bishops and Rap Superstars coming together to help level the playing field for everyone by bringing economic opportunity to new communities.

We are reaching new crowds and tapping into new markets while helping others discover the power of residual income! We are helping everyday people transform their lives by helping them build residual income machines – creating wealth and prosperity to places often overlooked by the establishment. Together we are changing the economy and lifting people up through entrepreneurism!

Keep Growing!

-JR Ridinger
President & CEO of Market America/Shop.com

John Hussman Just Issued His Strongest Warning Of A Stock Market Crash Yet

From BusinessInsider


John Hussman Just Issued His Strongest Warning Of A Stock Market Crash Yet

GREG MCKENNA, BUSINESS INSIDER AUSTRALIA  |  SEP. 28, 2014 


There is an old saying that when the tide goes out, you get to see who is swimming naked.

It’s the underlying premise behind the latest missive from US fund manager John Hussman titled “The Ingredients of a Market Crash.”

Hussman says the emerging divergence that he is seeing in markets — the lack of “trend uniformity” — is a signal that all is not well.

Historically, when trend uniformity has been positive, stocks have generally ignored overvaluation, no matter how extreme. When the market loses that uniformity, valuations often matter suddenly and with a vengeance. This is a lesson best learned before a crash rather than after one. Valuations, trend uniformity, and yield pressures are now uniformly unfavorable, and the market faces extreme risk in this environment.

He says that last week’s sawtooth pattern in the daily moves of US markets signals to him that investors are now unwilling to support the market.

There is no underestimating just how bearish Hussman is at the moment when he says:

The most hostile subset of market conditions we identify couples overvalued, overbought, overbullish extremes with a breakdown in market action: deterioration of breadth, leadership, and other market internals, along with a shift toward greater dispersion and weakening price cointegration across individual stocks, sectors and security types (what we sometimes call 'trend uniformity'). The outcomes are particularly negative, on average, when that shift is joined by a widening of credit spreads. That’s a shift we observed in October 2000. It’s a shift we observed in July 2007. It’s a shift that we observe today.

We have all been warned.